Market overview
The daily chart shows gold broke below the major trendline recently, with losses continuing as more sellers emerged. The target appears to be the key swing level at 3,120, where dip-buyers may position themselves for a move back to the 3,438 resistance.The daily chart shows gold broke below the major trendline recently, with losses continuing as more sellers emerged. The target appears to be the key swing level at 3,120, where dip-buyers may position themselves for a move back to the 3,438 resistance.
Gold continued its decline after failing to surpass the significant 3,438 resistance level last week. The absence of trade deals and bullish factors did not support the market as we approach the FOMC decision set for tomorrow.
The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the current stance but may signal a possible rate cut in September, contingent on receiving softer inflation data by then.
The 1-hour chart reveals a minor downward trendline indicating bearish momentum. Sellers are likely to continue relying on this trendline, managing risk above it to push for new lows, while buyers will aim for a breakout to target a move to the major broken trendline around the 3,370 level. The red lines indicate today’s average daily range.
Tomorrow’s schedule includes the US ADP employment report and the US Q2 GDP figures, alongside the much-anticipated FOMC rate decision. The GDP data will offer a comprehensive picture of US economic growth, while the Fed’s announcement is expected to provide guidance on future monetary policy, potentially impacting global market sentiment.
The daily chart indicates a significant breakdown as gold slipped below the major trendline, sparking a wave of selling pressure. The focus is currently on the key swing level at 3,120, where dip-buyers could potentially step in, eyeing a recovery towards the 3,438 resistance. This scenario hinges on the broader market sentiment and upcoming economic indicators that could sway investor confidence.
Gold technical analysis across timeframes
On the other hand, stronger data could persuade the Fed to refrain from changes, especially if inflation expectations trend upwards.
Thursday will bring the US PCE price index, a key measure of inflation closely watched by the Fed, as well as the US Jobless Claims and the US Employment Cost Index. These reports will further inform the inflation outlook and labor costs, critical components in the Fed’s evaluation of economic conditions.
Australia’s economic landscape could be influenced by a series of upcoming US economic data releases, which may have ripple effects in global markets, affecting commodity prices and exchange rates. Today, attention will focus on the latest US Job Openings and Consumer Confidence data, which can provide insight into the health of the US labor market and consumer sentiment. These indicators are crucial as they may influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.