Gold market dynamics

Broadly, gold remains range-bound, but the upside is restricted due to the lack of bullish catalysts and pressure from hawkish repricing. The US NFP report is due tomorrow and is expected to be significant. Weak data could boost gold, while strong results may intensify the bearish trend.

Broadly, gold remains range-bound, but the upside is restricted due to the lack of bullish catalysts and pressure from hawkish repricing. The US NFP report is due tomorrow and is expected to be significant. Weak data could boost gold, while strong results may intensify the bearish trend.

Additionally, the US Jobless Claims and the US Employment Cost Index will provide further insights into the health of the US labor market. Rising employment costs can signal inflationary pressures, potentially affecting gold prices depending on how these figures align with market expectations.

For Australian traders, this week’s upcoming economic events are pivotal for understanding the potential movements in the gold market. Today’s focus will be on several significant US economic indicators, including the US PCE price index, which measures inflation by tracking changes in consumer spending. This index is closely watched by market participants as it influences interest rate expectations.

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the chart depicts a persistent downtrend characterized by a descending trendline. This trendline serves as a strategic point for sellers who might look to capitalize on potential further declines. Should the price action remain below this trendline, it may embolden sellers to aim for new lows. Buyers, on the other hand, will be eyeing any potential break above this trendline, aiming for a rally towards the 3,333 swing point, which could extend to 3,438 resistance if momentum allows.

Technical chart insights

In the larger context, gold is expected to stay in an uptrend as real yields are likely to decrease with Fed easing. However, further hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations may continue to cause short-term corrections.

In the larger context, gold is expected to stay in an uptrend as real yields are likely to decrease with Fed easing. However, further hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations may continue to cause short-term corrections.

In the 4-hour timeframe, a visible downward trendline continues to signal bearish momentum. This trendline serves as a strategic point for sellers, who may exploit it to press for new lows, while buyers are focused on breaking above this line to challenge the 3,333 swing point. A successful breakout could propel gold further, eyeing the 3,438 resistance level.